Wednesday, December 19, 2012

Debt Crisis: Further Irish austerity should be delayed "to protect recovery": IMF - live

12.47 Bloomberg reports that central bank chiefs from across the world are set to meet as early as January 6 to revisit the terms of the Basel III rules drafted in 2010. At the heart of discussion will be requirements on how much liquid capital banks must hold as a proportion of their total balance sheet, which the regulations say should be enough to survive a 30-day credit squeeze. Central bankers, including ECB President Mario Draghi, say could drag down interbank lending, and slow economic recovery.

Basel in Switzerland, where the new bank regulations were drafted in 2010

12.37 EU lawmakers have admitted they will fail to meet the globally-agreed January deadline for the implementation of tougher capital requirements on banks. A meeting planned for today to thrash out the final details of a deal after talks last week stopped short of full agreement has been postponed. The move sees the EU join the US in delaying the introduction of the regulation, known as the Basel III rules, which are widely expected to come into force one year later than planned, in January 2014.

The Basel III rules will force banks to triple the amount of capital they hold over six years

12.23 The Icelandic government is divided on entering the EU as its edges closer to membership of the union. A parliamentary committee on foreign relations has sought to push back further negotiations, putting it at odds with the coalition government which wants to advance closer to entry. Anti-EU sentiment has been growing in the island nation which has enjoyed a robust economic recovery after its financial collapse in 2008 while the eurozone remains sluggish. In a recent poll, 53.5pc Icelanders want to drop the entry bid, 36.4pc want to join and 9.9pc were undecided.

11.55 DIrector of think tank Open Europe, Mats Persson, has argued the UK has more choice than 'all or nothing' in Europe in his Telegraph blog.

QuoteDavid Cameron yesterday let slip ? for the first time ? that he considers a future for the UK outside the EU "imaginable". The "desirable" outcome, however, was Britain remaining a member of the EU and single market but "where we are unhappy with parts of the relationship we shouldn't be frightened of standing up and saying so."

Cameron has therefore upped the game. It's increasingly difficult for him not to frame the issue as a choice between "renegotiation or Brixit" (as opposed to the status quo and Brixit or status quo or renegotiation).

Read his post here.

11.36 Bailed-out Portuguese bank Caixa Geral de Depositos is under investigation by EU competition regulators over whether dividends paid out by one of its units breached the conditions of its state aid package. The state-owned bank received a ?1.65bn capital injection provided it refrained from paying dividends and coupons on the aid money. The EU antitrust authority said in a statement:

QuoteThe Commission will investigate whether the dividend payments involve a misuse of the rescue aid that CGD had received and whether they constitute, in turn, state aid to the recipients.

Portuguese Finance Minister Vitor Gaspar announcing the state aid package for Portuguese banks in June

11.24 In the UK, the squeeze on consumers has not let up as inflation held steady at 2.7pc in November, after economists expected a fall. Rising food and energy costs offset falling petrol prices, keeping inflation at its highest since May.

11.11 Ireland's latest GDP figures were released this morning, showing the economy grew 0.2pc in the third quarter, putting the government on track to meet its modest growth targets for the year. Quarter two was also revised up to 0.4pc compared with 0pc previously. Conall MacCoille, chief economist at Davy Stockbrokers, said the figures were a positive sign:

QuoteThe first half of the year is a good bit stronger than the data had shown before so that means if growth is flat in the final quarter, you get 0.7 percent for the year. I think most people will be revising up their forecasts by almost half a percentage point on the back of this.

10.47 Back to Greece, where charities have collected more than four tonnes of food in a one-day donation drive for Athenians in need. Read the story by Greek news website ekathimerini.com read here.

10.42 Sluggish growth in the eurozone has taken a toll on Sweden, where the central bank has cut its key interest rate by a quarter point to 1pc. Swedish central bank the Riksbank said in a statement:

QuoteThe weak developments in the euro area are having a clear effect on the Swedish economy. International trade has been weak for some time now.

Swedish households and companies now have a more gloomy outlook and consumption and investment are weak. The situation on the labour market has also deteriorated and the number of redundancy notices has risen in recent months.

Aurora borealis glows over a pine forest near Kiruna, Sweden

10.22 A Greek official, speaking to news agency AFP, said Greece is set to receive its long-awaited ?34.3bn tranche of bail-out cash in full by Wednesday, after an initial payment of ?7bn was made on Monday. Athens will use ?11.3bn to finance its debt buyback programme, with the rest set to recapitalise Greek banks, said the source.

10.13 Spain has been urged by the EU to further clamp down on costs relating to its aging population, in a report released just hours after retirees took to the streets to protest government plans to stop pensions rising in line with inflation (see 08.17). The EU fiscal stability report said Spanish public pension spending will exceed the European average until 2060, and, following its current trajectory, the country's debt burden would rise to 114pc of GDP in 2020, and 129pc in 2030. The European Commission report said:

QuoteFurther containing age-related expenditure growth appears necessary to contribute to the sustainability of public finances in the long term [in Spain].

Spanish prime minister Mariano Rajoy

09.51 Back to Ireland, which is next in line for the rotating EU presidency, taking over from Cyrpus in the new year. In an interview with the Financial Times, Irish premier Enda Kenny has made clear his government will continue to fight for debt relief for rescued Irish banks while acting as an impartial chair on the rest of the EU agenda. Speaking on the rescue of the Irish banking system which has left the country with a ?64bn debt pile, he said:

QuoteBecause of the fact that the country that I lead politically was the only one that had a policy imposed on it from Brussels and from Frankfurt at that time - that a bank would not be allowed to fail - we've had to shoulder a unique burden from any other country in Europe.

Irish prime minister Enda Kenny, whose government is poised to take over the EU rotating presidency in the new year

09.26 And while Italy's president expressed his concerns to politicians, comedian Roberto Benigni sent a similar message to everyone else, in a somewhat more exaggerated fashion. The Oscar-winning director of Holocaust tragi-comedy 'Life is Beautiful' devoted an entire stand-up routine to the shortcomings of the Italian constitution last night. On Silvio Berlusconi's plans to stand for election, he said:

QuoteHe's back. Lord help us! He's got nothing to lose, he's done it all now - orgies, lawyers, minors. He's just having a crazy time! Mario, do us a favour [and run for election].

Italian comic Roberto Benigni, who held nothing back in ridiculing former prime minister Silvio Berlusconi

09.16 Italian president Giorgio Napolitano expressed his "regret and worry" that the government had come to an "abrupt" end, as he addressed party leaders and public figures yesterday. He was referring to Mario Monti's sudden resignation announcement on December 8 after Silvio Berlusconi's People of Freedom (PDL) party withdrew its support from his technocrat government. Mr Napolitano, a sagacious figure in Italian politics, said:

QuoteThe judgment of the results obtained [by Mr Monti's government] can diverge and can diverge even more in the fire of the electoral campaign, but I want to put you on guard that this fire of polemics does not burn the confidence that Italy has gained from the international community and on markets.

The country and our comon future is at stake, not only a bundle of votes for this or that party.

Italian president Giorgio Napolitano

09.01 European markets have opened and rose in early trading.

The FTSE 100 is up 0.29pc, the CAC rose 0.36pc, the DAX climbed 0.52pc, the IBEX in Madrid jumped 0.95pc and the MIB in Milan is up 0.6pc.

08.26 The IMF has recommended Ireland delays any further austerity measures - after six straight budgets aimed at cutting costs and raising taxes - as it released its next tranche of bailout cash of ?890m to the Celtic nation. David Lipton, the first deputy managing director at the IMF, said he predicted Dublin would comfortably hit the 8.6pc GDP deficit target for 2012, but warned if growth slowed, the government should resist deeper austerity measures. He said:

QuoteThis baseline outlook is subject to significant risks from any further weakening of growth in Ireland's trading partners, while the gradual revival of domestic demand could be impeded by high private debts, drag from fiscal consolidation, and banks' still limited ability to lend.

Nonetheless, if next year's growth were to disappoint, any additional fiscal consolidation should be deferred to 2015 to protect the recovery.

08.17 Overnight we had protests across Spain. One group out in force was the nation's retirees, opposing the government's decision to stop pensions rising in line with inflation. The government is also mulling plans to increase the retirement age and restrict index-linking of pension payouts, aimed at saving ?100bn -10pc of GDP - per year.

Demonstrators in Madrid. The signs read: "Cuts for bankers and priests" and "The pension, my right!"

06.00 Good morning and welcome to our live coverage of the eurozone debt crisis.

Source: http://telegraph.feedsportal.com/c/32726/f/568300/s/26b5ceda/l/0L0Stelegraph0O0Cfinance0Cdebt0Ecrisis0Elive0C97515350CDebt0ECrisis0EFurther0EIrish0Eausterity0Eshould0Ebe0Edelayed0Eto0Eprotect0Erecovery0EIMF0Elive0Bhtml/story01.htm

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